First, there should be no doubt that the Iran nuclear deal was an unmitigated failure.
One key failing is the accord’s inability to restrain Iran’s rampant research of ballistic missile technology. Cloaked under the absurd pretense of civilian satellite research, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has spent the past five years steadily improving its means to deliver a nuclear warhead. Considering the severe economic pressure Tehran is suffering, the fact that it continues to throw hundreds of millions of dollars at its ballistic missile program is good evidence for the regime’s desire to be able to wage nuclear war.
Former Secretary of State John Kerry’s diplomatic masterpiece also retains totally inadequate inspection protocols. Iran has a 30 days’ notice grace period before it must give international inspectors access to a site. Helpfully for Iran’s warhead weaponization research, military sites are off-limits.
Perhaps most important of all, the accord’s so-called “snapback” sanctions mechanisms have been proved impotent. The International Atomic Energy Agency recently reported that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is now 12 times the level that is allowed under the accord. In addition, Iran has installed new centrifuges and is enriching uranium up to a 4.5% purity, beyond the 3.67% cap imposed under the deal. Iran has accomplished these patent breaches of its pledges in the open, proudly proclaiming its disdain for the remaining members of the accord it once solemnly signed.
Astonishingly, President-elect Joe Biden, his State Department nominee Antony Blinken, and his national security adviser Jake Sullivan don’t seem terribly concerned about this reality. Instead, they present the speedy return to the nuclear accord as an exigent requirement of regional stability and restored confidence with our European allies.
This leads to our second contention: There’s a better path forward.
The Iranian regime is in desperate need of U.S. sanctions relief. Its economy is at rock bottom, suffering soaring inflation and unemployment. Tehran’s foreign capital reserves are all but evaporated. While parts of this economic calamity is a consequence of the government’s mismanagement and the coronavirus pandemic, the Trump administration’s sanctions also bear significant responsibility. Threatening European companies with a loss of access to U.S. markets if they continued dealing with Iran, the U.S. has overseen a great capital evacuation from Tehran. This economic weakness has depleted the resource pool available for the export of the Islamic revolution. Were Ayatollah Ali Khamenei forced to endure one more year of this pressure, his regime would be forced into choosing between risking an economically precipitated regime collapse and accepting U.S. demands for an improved nuclear accord.
Why not use this leverage?
Why not engage with our allies and underline that the U.S. is ready to rejoin the accord? But that is only if the accord is reformed to do what it is supposed to do: prevent Iran’s accession to a nuclear weapons state.
Biden could make clear that Iran will receive sanctions relief only on the basis of four new understandings. First, Tehran must agree to new restrictions on its ballistic missile program. Second, Tehran must allow for inspections with short notice at all nuclear and ballistic missile-related sites. Third, Tehran must transfer its enriched uranium stockpile, which is above previously agreed limits, abroad. And as an extension, Iran must restrain its future enrichment to the agreed 2015 limits. Fourth, if Tehran reneges on any of these new commitments, U.S. sanctions will be immediately and unilaterally reimposed.
Such a strategy would offer a pathway to doing what the Obama administration didn’t even try to do and what the Trump administration failed to do. That is, it would try to establish a credible nonproliferation structure around Iran. The alternative is to give Iran’s most hard-line elements the financial respite they need to establish quietly and covertly a nuclear strike capability. It would be a policy of American idiocy.
If it prefers appeasement, the Biden administration must be cautious. Asking Iran for little while giving it much, Biden may find a quick arrival of more unpleasant realities. We note, after all, that the apex of a Shiite nuclear weapon is not one that the Saudi Arabian monarchy will quietly tolerate. Nor, for that matter, is Israel likely to accept Iran’s ability to deliver a second Holocaust.
Biden should seek a strong Iran nuclear deal or no deal at all — and certainly not a return to failure.
Author: Washington Examiner,
Source: Washington Examiner : Biden’s security picks a worrisome sign for Iran policy